Slap Wager Watch: Power Slap 17 — Betting Breakdown

Written By SlapHappy

Back-to-back fight weeks, slight adjustment to the bankroll plan: lines are tight and the prop board’s thin, so I’m dialing down the parlays. That lowers the ceiling a bit, but if my favorites land we still walk with a clean profit. My two favorite positions tonight: Ro Montana ML & Zakir Naimanbayev ML as a price play. There are a few others I will fire on tonight as well as one prop I would lock in.

Slap Wager Watch Archive • Event Preview

Kabiru “The Nigerian Hulk” Adediran vs. Daniyar “Patap” Shakharov (HW, 3 Rounds)

  • Tape/Info: Too thin on both sides.

  • 🥊 Hub-SlapScore: Not enough data to lean.

  • 🎯 Pick: Pass

  • 🔒 Prop: Pass (no read)

Brian “The Predator” Ellis (+120) vs. Ro Montana (-155) — HW, 3 Rounds

  • Read: Ellis has the tools but the chin questions plus long layoff = volatility. Ro debuted well, looks composed on stage, and takes a shot like a champ—that recovery factor matters at heavyweight. I also think there’s untapped power upside as his mechanics tighten.

  • 🥊 Hub-SlapScore: Moderate lean to Ro.

  • 🎯 Pick: Ro Montana ML (I like it at current pricing)

  • 🔒 Prop: None (line dependent, staying simple)

Honggang Zhao vs. Mukhammed “Asadullah” Amantayev — LW, 3 Rounds

  • Tape/Info: Dual debuts = guesswork.

  • 🥊 Hub-SlapScore: No read (first-look fight).

  • 🎯 Pick: Pass

  • 🔒 Prop: Pass

James “The Iron Chin” Siekmann (7) (-190) vs. Louis “Razor” Robinson (+145) — HW, 3 Rounds

  • Read: I’m a big Siekmann fan, but his weight fluctuation has me wishing he’d either drop weight class or add back some mass. With no verified film on Robinson in this setting, I’m not forcing it.

  • 🥊 Hub-SlapScore: Lean Siekmann on proven form, but info gap on opponent.

  • 🎯 Pick: Pass (price + unknowns)

  • 🔒 Prop: Pass

Azael “El Perro” Rodriguez (2) (-150) vs. Andrew Provost (6) (+115) — WW, 3 Rounds

  • Read: Azael is chaos—looks rocked, then recovers like a monster and fires back. His experience edge is real, he has shown up but struggled in his title shots and got put to sleep in his last one. Provost has moments, but I still have questions about durability at Azael’s pace.

  • 🥊 Hub-SlapScore: Edges Azael (model dinged by El Perro’s “always looks hurt” style, but trend still leans his way).

  • 🎯 Pick: Azael Rodriguez ML (heavier lean if this stays near -150)

  • 🔒 Prop: Not to Go the Distance is live here (power + pace + chin questions)

Sheena “The Hungarian Hurricane” Bathory (-385) vs. Robyn “The Belter” Wereshchuk (+265) — WFW, 3 Rounds

  • Read: Bathory is explosive; still want more proof of her damage absorption. Robyn showed clean mechanics on debut but didn’t eat a true bomb. Until I see a bit more on both ends, I’m staying conservative.

  • 🥊 Hub-SlapScore: Slight Bathory edge, thin data overall.

  • 🎯 Pick: Lean Bathory, line is too wide no bet

  • 🔒 Prop: Pass

Dorian “Disturbing the Peace” Perez (1) (-190) vs. Zakir “Steppe Thunder” Naimanbayev (6) (+145) — HW, 3 Rounds

  • Read: Unbreakable chin meets immovable power. Perez has never been sat down and brings top-tier experience, but has never fully tightened his slap mechanics and foul trouble. Zakir hits like a truck and hasn’t found anyone who can live through his slaps! This is Zakir’s first top-flight test—and I’m still biting on the number.

  • 🥊 Hub-SlapScore: Big power signal for Zakir; Perez chin/prior comp keeps it closer on the model.

  • 🎯 Pick: Zakir Naimanbayev ML is a good price here

  • 🔒 Prop: None (respecting Perez’s durability)

Anthony “Babyface” Blackburn (C) (-260) vs. Cole “Full Send” Young (+190) — WW Title, 5 Rounds

  • Read: Rematch energy without the chaos tax. Their first meeting was a wild one—without that weak foul, you can argue Cole probably got it. Since then, Blackburn has been the steadier, more active fighter: cleaner mechanics, better round-to-round management, and he hasn’t blinked in five-round pacing. Cole brings a real chin and pop (PS11 KO), but that came against an undersized opponent, and the foul history still lingers. Over five, I trust the champ’s composure and decision-making.

  • 🥊 Hub-SlapScore: Leans Blackburn on form + activity.

  • 🎯 Pick: Anthony Blackburn ML

  • 🔒 Prop: None (five-round variance; save it for live)

Card Plan & Exposure

  • Featured plays: Ro Montana ML, Zakir ML, Azael ML

  • Props I’ll touch: Azael–Provost NTGTD if a fair price shows

  • Pass/trim: Dual debuts, Siekmann–Robinson (unknown), Bathory–Wereshchuk (thin data)

  • Bankroll tone: Coming off PS16 high, discipline first; still putting down a good bit, just aiming for clean profit over splashy slips.

Responsible Betting Note

Always gamble responsibly and never wager more than you’re comfortable losing. This content reflects my personal betting analysis and opinions only.

SlapHappy
Next

SLAP WAGER WATCH: POWER SLAP 16 — REACTION & RESULTS